Question: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year—a Goro state secret—very accurately.
Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?
(A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
(B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
(C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
(D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
(E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.
“In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed” - is a GMAT critical reasoning topic. This GMAT critical reasoning question consists of five options and candidates must choose the valid one that satisfies the argument of the passage. GMAT critical reasoning tests the candidates’ ability to examine arguments logically and analytically. To crack the question, a candidate can search for a piece of evidence that would weaken the argument. The candidate can hold logical flaws in the argument that will enable them to answer the question. Candidates had to answer 36 MCQ questions within the duration of 65 minutes in the critical reasoning section of the GMAT.
Answer: (D)
Explanation: The phrase supporting the statements of the given question demonstrates that this is an Inference critical reasoning problem. The question might appear like a strengthened question. The candidates need to separate the stimulus and deconstruct the argument. The candidates must go through the answer choices to look which answer choice supports the facts from the argument stated in the passage. The candidates need to derive the question by reasoning and conclude the question from the premises given in the passage. The candidates need to derive logical consequences from the assumed premises. The goal of this type of inference question is to look for an answer choice that can be verified as authentic by utilizing the facts stated in the argument. The candidates must go through the wrong answer choices to determine the correct one. The answer option that eradicates a potential secondary cause might read:
Marut’s FTA assesses Goro’s GNP from the previous year and calculates it correctly. However, FTA miscalculates what Goro’s GNP will be five years later. The real data comes up in 1994 when FTA got to know about these trends.
Option (A): Wrong
The statement in this option suggests that Goro's GNP fluctuated enormously between 1963 and 1994. The passage depicts the lack of precision of the Foreign Trade Agency (FTA) of Marut in 5-year projections of Goro’s GNP. The passage also shows its preciseness in the projection of the previous year of Goro’s GNP. It can be inferred that the FTA’s data was not correct all the time and neither incorrect all the time. But there is no data regarding the actual GNP of Goro when it was denoted wrongly or correctly. Therefore, the statement in this option is incorrect as it does not support the claim of the passage.
Option (B): Wrong
This statement implies that Goro has not supplied any data about itself that would deceive the agency while it produced its five-year projections before 1995. Therefore, the option suggests that in 1995, Goro offers misleading facts. As per the passage, it is known that information regarding Goro’s GNP was newly available in 1994. But it cannot be inferred whether this fact intends to deceive or not. Neither it can be inferred that such information became public for the first time. Further, it cannot be expressed how this fact became public. Moreover, it cannot be concluded whether Goro itself offers deceptive information. Therefore the option is incorrect since it does not satisfy the argument of the passage.
Option (C): Wrong
The option implies that the difference between the inaccurate GNP and the actual GNP of Goro tends to increase over time. There is no such information or data provided in the passage to support the statement of this option. The value of GNP could be identical over the years and thereby the amount of underestimation may be the same. Therefore, the option is incorrect and hence gets eliminated.
Option (D): Correct
This option states that even before the new information regarding Goro became public, the agency believed that some of its five-year projections were wrong. As per the passage discussion, it can be said FTA’s projection in the year 1963 would be for the GNP of Goro in 1969. In 1964, the FTA’s projection would be for Goro’s GNP in 1970 and in the year 1965, it would be for 1971 and so on. The records of these projections were not correct. However, the projections of FTA were correct in 1968, 1969, 1970 and so on. Therefore, it can be inferred that FTA knows the fact that the projections were not correct in some of the cases. This led FTA to make a new projection so that it could provide a more precise one. Therefore, this option is correct as it satisfies the argument of the passage.
Option (E): Wrong
This option implies that the five-year projections of FTA on Goro's GNP had no effect on economic planning in Marut. The statement in this option is entirely out of the subject matter of the passage. The passage does not provide any information about the economic planning of any of the countries. Therefore, the option is incorrect and hence gets eliminated.
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