Forecasts of Presidential Elections Based on Opinion Polls AWA GMAT Sample

byRituparna Nath Content Writer at Study Abroad Exams

Forecasts of Presidential Elections Based on Opinion Polls AWA GMAT Sample is an argumentative essay topic. GMAT analytical writing assessment examines the writing skills of a candidate through an essay. In this GMAT AWA essay, the candidate needs to write points that bring out the flaws and weak assumptions in the given argument. The best way to prepare for GMAT AWA is to practice from GMAT AWA practice papers. It is important for challenging and task-oriented candidates to present their answers in a well-organized and planned manner. The GMAT AWA essay needs to ensure that candidates can present their ideas efficiently.

In the GMAT AWA essay, if the author is telling the truth, it will be stronger. Without that, the argument has no effective tentacles and shreds of evidence. Candidates must provide evidence and discuss their thoughts on the topic. They must use persuasive evidence against the topic. In addition, candidates should try to convince the readers by describing the different figures and facts of the scenario. Candidates, however, need to understand that writing the essay for GMAT AWA Essay requires them to follow a definite structure that would enable organized writing. The following structure for the GMAT AWA Essay including five important paragraphs can be considered appropriate.

Introduction: Candidates need to first explain the topic of the essay given, and clearly state how well this is reasoned. The overview of the passage needs to be discussed in the introduction by the candidates.
Paragraph 1: In this paragraph, candidates must put forward the facts stated in the passage. They can also question the validity of the passage and explain them with reasons. This paragraph should include all the key points that can be discussed in the coming paragraphs.
Paragraph 2: This paragraph needs to include the second reason for the stated opinion of the candidate. Candidates can see the purpose of using opinion polls for the Presidential elections has emerged as a heated topic for debate across the United States. Candidates can also include examples. With the help of the example and argument, it is shown that the point of view is wrong and inconsistent.
Final paragraph: This paragraph should highlight the passage. Candidates can mention the flaws provided by the author and evidence to prove that. They can also mention what would have been different and create a discussion.
Conclusion: The conclusion reminds the reader and students of the title of the article and includes arguments and counter-arguments with examples to support and disprove the candidates' views. Here is a summary of the whole article. The word ‘finally’ emphasizes on conclusion. It is briefed with an increase in abilities like communication skills and linguistic talents.

Based on the structure and content of the GMAT release document, the best way is taken to explain the topic by considering the following response strategies, appreciating positive actions, and ignoring negative ones as much as possible:

Instead of analyzing and exploring an argument that criticizes the writer's statement, a characteristic feature is chosen that is maintained throughout the length of the article.
The entire article gives relevance and uniqueness to the readers by providing reasons and illustrations.
Strong declarative or assertive statements are created with active language and statements of cause, reasons, and effect.
The supporting statements are formatted and described well, briefed with two or three sentences, and concluded the article with a strong point

Topic: The following appeared in the editorial section of a daily newspaper.

“Although forecasts of presidential elections based on opinion polls measure current voter preference, many voters keep changing their minds about whom they prefer until the last few days before the balloting. Some do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. Forecasts based on opinion polls are therefore little better at predicting election outcomes than a random guess would be.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

Sample Essay:

The purpose of using opinion polls for the Presidential elections has emerged as a heated topic for debate across the United States. This is because people are divided in their belief regarding the use of opinion polls. Some people believe that the opinion polls are useful in forecasting the result of the elections. Another section of the population considers such polls to be altogether ineffective and does serve any purpose. In the given statement in the daily newspaper, the author clearly states that opinion polls help provide a better forecast of the election result. When compared to making a random guess. This notion is based on the ambiguous electoral behavior of the people. The argument presented by the author holds some merit, yet in my opinion, it is not supported by sufficient details and therefore, is very poorly reasoned.

Firstly, the author conveniently assumes that the primary purpose of an opinion poll during an election is to forecast the result of an election. However, in my opinion, an election poll serves a greater purpose than making a mere prediction. For example, according to a recent issue of the TIMES Magazine, election polls, in addition to forecasting the outcome of a particular election. It makes all voters aware of the voting process and encourages their active participation.

Secondly, the author assumes that the voters are indecisive in nature. They keep on changing their mind regarding casting their votes till the very last days before the balloting begins. Although this argument might be true for some voters, it can, in no way, represent the behavior of all the voters. In fact, a majority of the population are staple voters for a particular party. For example, in a recent opinion poll conducted by the Economist Magazine. It states that approximately 70 per cent of the participating voters had already decided upon the party. They would cast their respective votes, at least a month prior to the actual elections. Thus, the author needs to provide more data regarding the indecisive nature of the voters.

Thirdly, the author has also implied upon the probability of inaccurate forecast results of the opinion polls regarding the forthcoming elections. This false assumption made by the author is quite dangerous. This is because such forecasts or predictions based on election or opinion polls are always conducted by companies. Well equipped and are specialized in providing very accurate outcomes. In fact, some of these opinion polls also make use of lie detectors in order to get the most accurate results. Therefore, in the light of a lack of supporting details, the author can overlook the value of these predictions based on the opinion polls.

Furthermore, the author also compares the accuracy of predictions made based on opinion polls with those made on the basis of a random guess. According to the author, the predictions made on the basis of random guesses are more likely to be less accurate. This is because the former can only provide accurate outcomes in cases where no form of external information is allowed to influence the guesses at any cost. However, this is hardly the scenario in case of election results where the population is most certainly influenced by all forms of external information. However, in case of opinion polls, the choices of the population regarding the number of viable candidates. It becomes comparatively narrow and therefore, the probability of the predictions made based on the election polls is more likely to be correct.

In conclusion, it can be clearly said that this argument is very unconvincing and weak. In the absence of any suitable details to prove the arguments, the assumptions made are quite invalid and illogical. In order to strengthen the argument, the author must focus on providing more evidence that is in support of his claims regarding the election polls. Additionally, the author must also provide some evidence to support his argument regarding the indecisive nature of the people regarding the election. For the purpose of drawing a better conclusion, the author must also try to find the reasons. The reasons behind such indecisiveness on the part of the individuals and the manner in which such hesitation gets reflected in the opinion polls as well as in the presidential elections.

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Forecasts of Presidential Elections Based on Opinion Polls AWA GMAT Sample

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