Each Increase of 1 Percent in Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita GMAT Critical Reasoning

Question: Each increase of 1 percent in real disposable personal income per capita will increase the share of the electorate for an incumbent by about 2.2 percentage points, other things being equal. Since 1952 there has been a decline in real disposable income during only one presidential election year. The incumbent lost that election.

Which of the following conclusions can be properly drawn from the statements above?

(A) When an incumbent runs for office, he or she is likely to win.
(B) Political parties should take care to put forth a candidate who seems prosperous.
(C) Presidential candidates should put their greatest efforts into improving their public image.
(D) Because a presidential campaign requires the expenditure of large amounts of money, it frequently impoverishes a candidate and his or her supporters.
(E) The outcome of a presidential election is substantially affected by factors other than the ideological positions of the candidates.

“Each increase of 1 percent in real disposable personal income per capita will increase” – is a GMAT Critical question. To answer the question, a candidate can either find a piece of evidence that would weaken the argument or have logical flaws in the argument. GMAT critical reasoning tests the logical and analytical skills of the candidates. This topic requires candidates to find the argument's strengths and weaknesses or the logical flaw in the argument. The GMAT CR section contains 10 -13 GMAT critical reasoning questions out of 36 GMAT verbal questions.

Answer: E
Explanation:

The GMAT's critical reasoning portion assesses a candidate's ability to think critically and analytically. To come up with a coherent response, the candidate must have strong deductive and thinking abilities.

The sentence reads,
Each percentage point gain in real disposable personal income per capita, while all other variables are held constant, will increase the proportion of voters who will support an incumbent by roughly 2.2 percentage points. Since 1952, there has only been one presidential election year where real disposable income fell. The incumbent lost that election.

First, an overarching principle: inference questions ask for information that is clearly true in light of what we've read. Consequently, generally speaking, be sceptical of any response that makes forecasts for the future based on past trends. Any such prediction is based on the assumption that "If things proceed in the same manner as they have in the past.

Regarding the particulars of this case, note that we were never told that only this one incumbent had lost, that the only election year to see a decline in disposable income was 1952, that we don't know who won because we don't know the extent (if any) of the surge in other elections, and that we don't know the size of the incumbents' lead.

Let's look at each option separately.

A: Inaccurate
It is not always the case, but Option A's claim that an incumbent is more likely to win while running for office is incorrect.

B: Inaccurate
Option B is the wrong answer since it suggests that political parties should put out a successful candidate, which is not supported by any evidence.

C: Inaccurate
Option C is incorrect because it suggests that presidential candidates should focus all of their efforts on enhancing their public image.

D: Inaccurate
This choice is irrelevant and incorrect for the same reason that options B and C are incorrect since they are not predicated.

E: Accurate
Therefore, it can be safely concluded that a candidate's ideological perspective is not the only factor affecting the outcome of a presidential election. Choice E performs the same exact action, so the answer is E. Personal discretionary income increases have an impact on the results of presidential elections.

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